UK economic growth hits six-month low, manufacturing slides
today Jan 11, 2019
Britain's economy cooled in the three months to November, expanding at its weakest pace in six months as factories suffered from tough global trade conditions ahead of Brexit, official data showed on Friday.
Gross domestic product in the three months to November was 0.3 percent higher than in the previous three-month period, down from growth of 0.4 percent in the three months to October and matching the consensus of a Reuters poll of economists.
Manufacturers suffered their longest period of monthly falls in output since the financial crisis, hurt by weaker overseas demand, the Office for National Statistics said.
Worries about the global economy have been mounting due to concerns about a trade war between the United States and China. Figures from Germany and France earlier this week similarly showed falling industrial output.
Britain's economic growth in the three months to November was driven mostly by the dominant services sector, as well as the construction industry.
The figures fit with business and consumer surveys that suggest the economy is slowing sharply after robust growth of 0.6 percent in the third quarter of the year, reflecting growing uncertainty ahead of Britain's planned departure from the European Union, as well as global jitters.
Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29 and whether businesses will still be able to trade without disruption to cross-border supply chains remains unclear.
The future of the deal which Prime Minister Theresa May has agreed in principle with the EU hangs in the balance ahead of a parliamentary vote which will take place on Tuesday.
May is widely expected to lose and this would leave open the prospect of Britain leaving the EU without any transitional arrangements to smooth the economic shock.
Calls for a second referendum -- which May has rejected -- are growing.
Friday's figures showed that compared with a year earlier, the economy stood 1.4 percent larger. In November alone, it expanded 0.2 percent, compared with forecasts for a rise of 0.1 percent.
The data are broadly in line with the Bank of England's view that the economy is likely to have grown around 0.2 percent over the fourth quarter of 2018.
Britain's economy slowed after the June 2016 Brexit vote, its growth rate slipping from top spot among the Group of Seven group of rich nations to mid-table or lower.
Consumers in particular were squeezed by the jump in inflation which followed the pound's tumble after the referendum, especially as wages have failed to keep up.
That said, an unusually warm summer in mid-2018 encouraged many to splash out on drinks and pub and restaurant visits.
But retail sales data suggests consumers reined in spending over Christmas.
Earlier this week closely watched purchasing managers' surveys pointed to fourth-quarter growth of around 0.1 percent in Britain, according to data firm IHS Markit which compiles the surveys.
Friday's data showed that Britain's services sector grew by 0.3 percent over the three months to November, while industrial output dropped by 0.8 percent, the biggest decline since May 2017.
Looking at November alone, industrial output dropped 1.5 percent on the year -- the biggest fall since August 2013.
Separate figures showed Britain's goods trade deficit widened unexpectedly in November to 12.0 billion pounds from 11.9 billion pounds, worsened by the highest oil imports since September 2014.
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